At Pham Capital Partners, informed decisions are the foundation of sustainable wealth. The following views reflect personal observations based on public market data and should not be considered direct financial advice.
President Trump’s First 100 Days: Early Signals for the Economy
As of April 29, the political and economic landscape continues to evolve under the new administration. According to PolitiFact’s MAGA-Meter, tracking 75 key campaign promises:
- Promises Kept: ~20%
- In Progress: ~40%
- Stalled or Broken: ~40%
Key Achievements:
- Immigration Enforcement: Policies around deportations and birthright citizenship have been tightened.
- Executive Action: Over 130 executive orders were signed, moving faster than previous administrations.
Trade Policy Shifts: Tariffs imposed on China, Canada, and Mexico signal stronger protection for U.S. industries.
Ongoing Challenges:
- Economic Pressures: Inflation remains persistent, particularly impacting housing affordability and consumer goods.
- Healthcare Initiatives: Comprehensive healthcare reform remains incomplete.
- Foreign Relations: Reduced foreign aid has strained diplomatic alliances.
These developments will continue influencing private equity opportunities, venture capital funding, and global investment flows throughout 2025.
Market Snapshot: Is the Rally Real?
The stock market posted three consecutive positive days last week, lifting indexes by 4%–6%. However, the key question is whether this bounce represents a sustainable bull market or a bear market rally.
The “Magnificent 7” tech companies, including Microsoft and Meta, are critical bellwethers. Earnings reports due April 30 could validate current valuations or spark renewed volatility. At Pham Capital Partners, we advise investors to remain cautious. I am reducing exposure by 50% across my public equity portfolio to protect gains and preserve capital for future strategic redeployment.
While some forecasts predict the S&P 500 could reach 5,800–6,000 by year-end, underlying economic risks suggest that a pullback to 4,800 remains possible before a sustainable rally emerges.
Strategic Investment Insight
Private Equity Outlook: Volatility creates windows for acquiring mid-market businesses at attractive valuations. According to Kearney’s 2025 outlook, private equity firms are navigating a dynamic landscape marked by recovery, innovation, and persistent challenges, with expectations of a more positive outlook this year than in 2024 as deal activity resumes, though unevenly across regions and industries.
Emerging Markets Strategy: Vietnam, Southeast Asia, and industrial supply chain sectors offer resilience amid global shifts. Fidelity Institutional notes that emerging markets may continue a relatively strong earnings trend in 2025, especially compared to developed international markets.
Real Estate Opportunities: Inflation hedging through targeted commercial real estate investments remains a priority. Forbes highlights increased demand for flexible spaces in 2025, shaped by hybrid work trends and a focus on sustainability.
U.S.–China Tensions: Economic Crosswinds Ahead
Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China continue to intensify, creating ripple effects across supply chains, commodity pricing, and global commerce. The Port of Los Angeles anticipates a 35% reduction in cargo volumes from Asia starting next week due to the impact of newly imposed U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports.
Imagine two titans clashing in the center of a marketplace, while the bystanders suffer the unintended consequences. This is the reality for small businesses and working-class families facing rising prices, delayed shipments, and economic uncertainty.
Though the latest CPI reading shows inflation moderating at 2.5%, tariff impacts often lag 6–8 weeks due to shipping cycles. We expect the actual inflationary consequences of current trade policies to materialize by late May or early June 2025.
Strategic takeaway: Smart portfolio management in 2025 requires anticipating lagging inflation effects and diversifying across private equity, tangible assets, and alternative investments.
Closing Insights: Patience in a Shifting Market
At Pham Capital Partners, our mission is simple: to help businesses and investors navigate complex markets with precision, patience, and purpose.
As public headlines shift daily, our focus remains on:
- Strategic Capital Deployment: Investing in high-potential businesses, real estate, and fintech platforms.
- Wealth Preservation: Managing risk while building long-term value.
- Global Market Expertise: Leveraging U.S.–Vietnam cross-border insights and emerging market growth trends.
The road ahead may be uneven, but with strategic investments and disciplined portfolio management, we believe lasting success is within reach.
Thank you for joining the Pham Capital Partners community. We look forward to building a resilient future together.
Charlie Pham
Founder, Pham Capital Partners
www.phamcapitalpartners.com
Note: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
