Pham PCP Market Note — ETH, BMNR & Our Playbook 

Prepared for Pham PCP members 

Executive Summary (TL;DR) 

• ETH pullback = healthy reset. The recent cooldown likely fuels the next leg higher if support holds.   
• BMNR = high‑beta ETH proxy. Tight float + narrative means bigger swings (both directions) than ETH.  
• Our base plan: 
• Accumulate BMNR on $47–$52 weakness when ETH is stable.   
• Hold through $58–$65 while momentum rebuilds.
• Trim into $65–$70, then $73–$78; stretch target $80+ if ETH breaks out. 
• Risk controls: Respect ETH < $4.3k (or your chosen pivot), dilution headlines, and abnormal volume reversals. 

Disclaimer: This note is for education, not investment advice. Markets move; position sizing and risk controls are your edge. 

Market Backdrop (Why this setup is attractive) 

• Liquidity tailwind: Easing‑leaning policy guidance supports risk assets. Pullbacks in this regime are 
• often buyable.
• Crypto adoption: ETF flows, stablecoin settlement, and DeFi activity continue to institutionalize ETH. 
• Rotation dynamics: After a fast run, leaders rest → late buyers get shaken out → trend resumes with stronger hands. 

The Core Thesis 

1) Ethereum in a “1971 moment”  

• In 1971 the U.S. ended dollar‑gold convertibility; gold was set free to float, eventually re‑rating massively. 
• Analogy: ETH is moving from niche to infrastructure (settlement for stablecoins, DeFi, tokenization). Structural demand can drive a multi‑year re‑rating. 

2) BMNR as an ETH proxy 

• BMNR frames itself as an ETH‑treasury company. If ETH trends higher, BMNR can act like a levered  equity proxy—with the caveat of higher volatility and dilution sensitivity.

3) Where we can be wrong 

• ETH loses key support and trends lower.
• Company‑specific risks (share issuance, buyback non‑execution, custody/attestation gaps).  
• Macro shock (policy surprise, growth/inflation scare). 

Levels & Triggers (Action Map) 

Use this as a quick‑reference matrix. Adjust the ETH levels to your preferred pivots. 

ETH Zone BMNR Expectation Action

BMNR accelerates toward $70– Trim 25–50% into $73–$78; hold a runner for  Breakout (≥ $80 $80+4.8k)

Strong (4.5k– BMNR bases $58–$65; tests $68– $70 Hold; prepare staged sells above $654.8k)

Neutral (4.3k– 4.5k) BMNR oscillates $50–$60 Accumulate $47–$52; keep stops tight

Weak (< 4.3k) BMNR can probe $44–$50 Reduce risk; wait for stabilization to add

Pro tip: Let ETH lead, and trade BMNR in tranches (core + trading) to avoid all‑in/all‑out decisions. 

Positioning Blueprint 

• Core position (40–60%): Held through noise to participate in the trend. 
• Trading sleeve (40–60%): 
• Adds: $47–$52 on ETH stability. 
• Trims: $65–$70 (first), $73–$78 (second), $80+ (stretch). 
• Cash buffer (10–15%): Dry powder for dislocations. 

Risk Management (Non‑negotiables) 

• Size for volatility. BMNR’s tight float cuts both ways. 
• Respect dilution. Shelf/ATM/PIPE headlines can overwhelm a good chart. 
• Have a line in the sand. If ETH breaks your pivot (e.g., 4.3k) and BMNR loses support, de‑risk first analyze later. 
• Use staged orders. Scale sells into strength; scale buys on controlled weakness.

FAQ 

Verification Checklist (Run this after each PR/filing) 

1. Proof of reserves / custody: Wallets or third‑party attestation? 
2. Share count / dilution: Are new shares/warrants hitting the market?  
3. Buyback: Authorized and executed? (Shares outstanding down; cash spent.)
4. Insiders/holders: Form 4 / 13D‑G moves aligned?  
5. Reconcile claims: PR numbers vs 10‑Q/8‑K balance sheet. 

Playbook for the Week Ahead 

• If ETH pushes higher: Let BMNR run; execute trims above $65, then $73–$78. Hold a runner for  $80+. 
• If ETH chops sideways: Expect BMNR to coil $55–$62; keep staged orders ready. 
• If ETH dips: Buy plan activates $47–$52 (only on stabilization). Lower exposure if both ETH and BMNR break support. 

Closing Thought 

Winning here is less about predicting every tick and more about discipline: buy fear at defined levels, sell euphoria in stages, and demand verifiable progress from the company. Do that, and you’ll navigate the noise like a pro. 

— Pham PCP Strategy Team